他，就是Chartwell Capital的创始人Ronald Chan，也是我们Investor Z Club香港修行之旅的第一站。
谈及投资生涯的开端，Ronald在NYU读的是会计与金融，那是一个互联网刚开始普及的年代，只要用100美元就可以开一个交易账户进行股票交易。在这样的时代背景下，Ronald人生第一次参与进投资中，当时他的投资意向有Compaq Computer，Apple，Oracle，最后他在24美元左右购买了Compaq Computer，经过一段时间，他在这只股票上赚到了4美元，但是同期的另外两只股票表现更为惊人，均从24美元左右都涨到了100美元以上。
在股票市场上”搏斗“时，相信很多人会将自己的收益水平拿来与指数的表现作比较，有趣的是，Ronald经历过一段时期，父亲建议他“forget how to get rich but learn how to stay rich”，只要收益的水平超过资金的利息，大约是5%~7%，那么也是不小的胜利。
关于先做充分的调研后再进行投资，还是先做完投资后再进行深入的调研，这其实也是两个迥异的投资风格。Charles Merrill选择了前者，George Soros选择了后者，其实两者之间并没有特别的也说不出孰优孰劣，Ronald认为在投资前做太多的研究会让你变得迟疑不决，比如当你列举出这家公司十个优点和十个缺点，你便会迷惘不知该如何进行决策，因此你需要对商业和市场有一些信仰，如果你是先做投资后再继续深入研究，那么你真的需要非常多的经验来在那个合适的时机来临时做出迅速的判断，比如当腾讯跌去60%的股价时，你完全可能会根据本能买入，即时在投资决策做出后，你发现自己做出了十分严重错误的决定，你也可以在接下来的时间立刻卖出止损。
最后感谢我们Investor Z Club能为我们筹划这么棒的一次香港修炼之旅。
- When did you decide to become an investor?
I was a high school student in America at the time. My sister took me to New York City on holiday and I shared a room with a friend of hers who studied finance at New York University. One morning he turned on CNBC and started watching a program that had lots of symbols and numbers scrolling along the bottom of the screen. I asked him what the symbols meant and he told me that they werestock quotes and one could make money by trading stock. That was the most important discovery of my life and from then on I wanted to learn as much as I could about the stock market.
As I entered university, my father encouraged me to study accounting because it is the backbone of every business. He said that if I wanted to become a good investor, understanding financial statements would becritical, so I chose accounting and finance when I attended NYU.
In the 1990s, online trading became popular. My father gave me $2,500 dollars to open an online brokerage, and my investment career officially began. I started trading as the Internet bubble was just beginning, and everything was on the rise. I asked the friend who had introduced me to the stock market what I should buy, and he told me to consider Compaq, Apple, and Oracle. I picked Compaq because I had a Compaq computer right in front of me, and at the time Apple wasn’t thatpopular and I had no idea what Oracle did. In the end, both Oracle and Apple went up a lot, but Compaq traded sideways. It was a terrible experience for me as a first-time investor. However, when the Internet bubble burst, both Oracle and Apple dropped in value, and Compaq was boughtby Hewlett Packard, so I still made money from that investment.
- When did you find your investment style?
When I bought Compaq stock, I was relying on someone else’s advice. My entry point was purely based on technical analysis. So at the beginning of my investment career I was more of a chartist than a value investor. I read technical trading books by Martin Pring, Alexander Elder and Jack Schwager. I focused on MACD, RSI, Bollinger band, Fibonacci numbers and even point and figure graphs. However, my style changed when I found out about Warren Buffett and the merits of fundamental analysis.
This shift began when my father gave me a lot ofHSBC shares, and he asked me to pledge all these shares at the bank and take out a loan. He told me that if I could beat the borrowing cost by intelligently investing/trading in the market, then I could reach financial freedom all by myself.
I was very excited by this idea at first, so I started trading the market aggressively, forever glued to my computer to watch stock quotes. But somehow my trading strategies kept losing, and I was devasted because I owed the bank a lot of money.
Being kind-hearted and forgiving, my father didn’t yell at me. Instead, he replenished my lost capital, told me not to be aggressive in the market and to focus on the long term. Most importantly, he told me to focus on preserving and growing capital to stay rich rather than to get rich. That was a big lesson learned, and fortunately I read about Warren Buffett and value investing at the same time. I deeply embraced this style of investing and have maintained that stance ever since.
- How much do we need to know before investing in a stock?
Charles Merrill from Merrill Lynch said “investigate, then invest.” George Soros said “invest, then investigate.” After becoming a value investor, I followed the Merrill approach at first because it made sense and is certainly prudent, so I did a lot of analysis before I pulled the trigger. But no decision can be 100 percent certain, and there can be times when you fall into the analysis paralysistrap. When to stop analyzing something and start making up your mind is an important aspect ofinvesting.
As I have researched many sectors and stocks over the years, I have gained a deeper understanding of their valuation and trading patterns, so I now set price alerts or limit prices on some of these stocks. To an extent, I have adopted the “invest, then investigate” approach. This doesn’t mean that I invest blindly, but perhaps my experience has given me a good ability to gauge stock prices, so I am now both proactive and reactive in the investment process.
- What do you think of AI in investing?
I think AI will certainly replace conventional investment analysis. However, I like to say that analysts predict the future but entrepreneurs create the future. It is inevitable that machine learning will help predict the future, but it cannot create the future for us. In the end, it’s still the human and entrepreneurial spirit that drives the world forward. Learning how to be a good judge of character and building one’s human network are important ingredients in investing. This is something AI can never replace.
- Can you tell us about how you generate investment ideas?
Ideas come from everywhere. You just need to be observant in life. For example, when my first daughter was born my wife said we need to store her cord blood because it was rich in stem cells and could cure some blood-related diseases in the future. We paid USD4,000 for this service, which was like a form of medical insurance for us. I became intrigued by this cord blood business and found that there were several listed companies in this space, and after further research I invested in one of them. A few years later, my return was over 100 percent, which was pretty good.